This is interesting.
Oil should be going through the roof but its tanking.
The indexes world wide are now following China's lead.
Gold and silver are moving like a drunken sailor in an unfamiliar Port

And no one has any comments.
Are there no bears left?
Have the bull's misplaced their bells?
Has cshd and tdcp taken all the fun out of the game?

Come on guys, I know some of you are still here.

Good Luck

__________________
If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.

The indexes took yet another beating today. The close below 16230 show's that the downward pressure is mounting. Barring some epic event, 15400 Dow here we come.

Crude is dancing around the $30 mark , flirting with a complete collapse.
With China's economy contracting ,demand is not there to support oil prices anymore since the USA supplies most of its own needs now. If oil continues at these levels or collapses all hell breaks loose.

Gold and silver are not following the traditional contrarian relationship to the equities market.
PM's should be spiking up, but are generally hovering in a tight range. IMO, that's because the big players and the sovereigns have figured out that inflation isn't the likely next shoe to drop.
Deflation is.

If anyone reads this, look at a five year chart of the DOW. Let me know if you see what I do.


Good Luck

__________________
If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.

16,000 is a key support level for the DOW. I do see a rounding on the expanded chart with what looks like the start of longer term downtrend, same can be said for the S&P. Both have also cracked the middle Bollinger band on the monthly chart. Last time this occurred and it wasnt able to reclaim it was 2008. I think that speaks volumes. If this is a longer term drop it looks like a back-test is in order for key prior highs (12-14k for Dow and mid 1500s for the S&P).

I have also heard some analysts claim that if 30 cracks on oil it goes to the teens. There is a rally going on right now, so we will see how this all plays out. If we continue to see the bear in charge I would suspect the levels mentioned above would be a reasonable target. If this is a false bear then we want to see the 20 month average(mid bolli) reclaimed on both the S&P and Dow. I'll post back on this thread if it happens.

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"Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game."

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-Arnold Schwarzenegger

It is early in the day, but a few things bear mentioning.
The indexes all shot straight down at the open and selling pressure is increasing across the board. Technology and energy are leading the way down but financial and retail are right on their heels. Oil broke hard below the $30 mark and selling pressure is increasing. Technically, oil should be even lower at the moment but there are no buyers. That's an incredible situation. It's an aberration that won't hold long but is an interesting circumstance to observe.

PM's up for now just about equal to equities fall on a percentage basis. Not even close to accounting for the capital coming out of stocks. So, where is the capital going?

Stocks, commodities, oil, all southbound. PM's range bound.

Interesting times.


Good Luck

__________________
If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.

Having all major investment vehicles down is usually a sign of panic/market roll-over, doesn't take long to figure that out at a glance anyway. This exact thing happened in 2008. Stocks, Commodities and Bonds were all heading south, there really wasn't anyway to escape the decline for longs.

That being said we are still within the a range of reasonability, but gravitational force seems to continue to increase. This will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Also, that is an interesting point regarding oil. The lack of marketability/liquidity is never a good sign. I think since the $30 crack most savvy investors want the teens. That would be some fairly big fireworks...we will see.

__________________


Follow me on Twitter @Volatile22

"Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game."

-Donald Trump

“We all have great inner power. The power is self-faith. There's really an attitude to winning. You have to see yourself winning before you win. And you have to be hungry. You have to want to conquer.”

-Arnold Schwarzenegger

Agreed. If,and it's a big if, the bargain hunters come in and buy heavy it can still turn and be a much needed correction. Then we can get back to business as usual .

Oil, I think, is the wild card. If it can hold $30ish or recover a bit things should stabilize.
Oil continuing to slide or slipping into low $20 or even the teens is a disaster. That would destroy Russia's economy, Saudis would likely collapse since they are already under major pressure from outside. The US industry would lose well over a million jobs in an economy already barely above recessionary income and participation levels.

Good Luck

__________________
If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.

Totally, the thing for today too is the long weekend will compound any rush to the exits. Fear is driving the market now and it's doubtful anyone will want to go heavy into the close today.

The market really is at a crucial pivot point. S&P key level in this range is 1867, below that with conviction and I think the next backstop is the 200 week MA, which currently sits at 1780.

Thoughts on Iran entering the market now (thanks Obama) and what issues this may cause to the saturated oil market? It would seem like this would compound the decline, unless its being priced in already?

__________________


Follow me on Twitter @Volatile22

"Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game."

-Donald Trump

“We all have great inner power. The power is self-faith. There's really an attitude to winning. You have to see yourself winning before you win. And you have to be hungry. You have to want to conquer.”

-Arnold Schwarzenegger

I believe Iran is already a part of the equation. I also think that is part of the problem. OPEC has opened the spiggots to lower the price as a means to mitigate Iran's ability to sell oil. If Iran makes money it will use it to further destabilize its sworn enemy, the Saud's. The Saud's are using the only preemptive device they have, money. I think they believe that Arabia can ride out an economic downturn in exchange for bringing Iran to heel.
I also believe they are wrong. Iran is nipping at the Saudis already and openly fomenting discord inside the kingdom despite a lack of major bucks. Why would they back off when even $20+ a barrel oil is more than they have now?

The end result , IMO, of this tactic will be economic turmoil throughout OPEC, and a desperate Russian bear with no money and lots of troops. Oil is by far Russia's main source of hard currency and they have no problem creating chaos to get what they want. Just look at Ukraine and Syria.

Webs wrapped in camouflage and cloaked in bull. Oil is money, money is power and most of the oil lives under the feet of lunatics.

Good Luck

__________________
If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.

This should be an interesting day.
Oil was up but then it was down, now it looks like it will open flat.
The index futures indicate a good open but the spread has dropped considerably from just an hour earlier. Earnings news from China will move things but will their stimulus plan soothe anyone's nerves? I doubt it.


Here we go. Get the popcorn out, it's likely to be a bumpy ride.


Good Luck

__________________
If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.

This was very well said. Thank you for your input, very interesting points for sure. I was wondering (in a simplistic way) if Iran was priced in, but now after thinking about what you said the release of the sanctions on Iran is most likely the main driving point of oils downturn since the summer. I was originally thinking it was the Saudis trying to force US oil out of the equation, but when you look at the chart compared to the Iran announcement there's no coincidence there (July 14th).

Agree, today looks to be volatile right out of the gate. Popcorn is in hand.

__________________


Follow me on Twitter @Volatile22

"Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game."

-Donald Trump

“We all have great inner power. The power is self-faith. There's really an attitude to winning. You have to see yourself winning before you win. And you have to be hungry. You have to want to conquer.”

-Arnold Schwarzenegger